2008 NBA Mock Draft

Here is my first edition of a mock draft for 2008!

1. Chicago Bulls - Derrick Rose (Memphis)
Beasley seems to be a better fit, as the Bulls need a low-post scorer, but I simply think Derrick Rose is the better player. He's unstoppable in the open court, and if he ever develops a consistent jumpshot, he looks like a stronger version of Chris Paul (without quite the passing ability). Plus, John Paxson always emphasizes defense, and Derrick Rose has a much higher ceiling as a defender than Michael Beasley.

2. Miami Heat - Michael Beasley (Kansas St.)
Rose is the guy they really want, but Beasley sure is a nice consolation. He's NBA ready both on the offensive end and rebounding the basketball, and should be able to step into a lineup right away. Beasley will have his struggles on the offensive end, but a trio of Wade-Marion-Beasley would be a real good start in Miami.

3. Minnesota Timberwolves - Brook Lopez (Stanford)
With Lopez, the Timberwolves would be setting themselves up to have one of the best offensive frontlines in the NBA. They already have improving Al Jefferson, and Brook Lopez has great touch around the basket. Lopez does not have great athleticism, but he's big and is refined in his post moves around the basket. That could warrant a top 3 pick.

4. Seattle Supersonics - Jerryd Bayless (Arizona)
Seattle already had a nice core from last year's draft, and Bayless would be another great piece. He's a PG in the mold of a guy like Gilbert Arenas, in that he is really quick off the dribble and is a deadeye shooter. He is 19 and Kevin Durant is 20, so that would be a potent 1-2 combo for years.

5. Memphis Grizzlies - OJ Mayo (USC)
The Grizzlies could go with a big man here, but I like them to go with an off guard in OJ Mayo to create an immensely talented young backcourt, teaming him up with Mike Conley (and then ideally dealing Javaris Crittenton or Kyle Lowry). Mayo has great range on his shot (which makes him a good complement to Conley), but can also score off the dribble, and showed surprising leadership ability in his one year with USC.

6. New York Knicks - Danilo Gallinari (Italy)
According to reports, Gallinari is a 6'10'' forward with PG skills. He can handle the ball, create his own shot (either off the drive or with his back to the basket), hit from 3-point range, and he's a good passer. Sounds like a perfect fit for D'Antoni's system.

7. Los Angeles Clippers - Russell Westbrook (UCLA)
With the PG position unsettled in LA, Westbrook is a nice fit to stay in town and join the Clippers. While he hasn't played full-time at PG very much, he showed he has the skills to do it last year. He's solid handling the ball, he's a very good passer, and he has the athleticism required. He's very tough defensively both on the ball and in the passing lanes. He needs to develop a more consistent jump shot, but that was coming along as the year went. With his athleticism, he is great on the fast break.

8. Milwaukee Bucks - Eric Gordon (Indiana)
Gordon is a great scoring combo guard. With Gordon, the Bucks could look to unload Michael Redd and his large contract. Gordon can score in a variety of ways, as he showed by leading the Big 10 in scoring as a freshman.

9. Charlotte Bobcats - Anthony Randolph (LSU)
Looking for more athleticism, the Bobcats can look to young, but very talented and athletic Randolph. He's in the mold of a Brandan Wright from last year in that he needs to bulk up and improve his midrange game, but he appears to have the talent to do that. He averaged over 15 and 8 in his rookie campaign, and with over 2 blocks per game, showed that his athleticism can allow him to do some things defensively.

10. New Jersey Nets - Kevin Love (UCLA)
With athleticism all around, the Nets can take Love, who provides an NBA ready, polished game. He'll never be a star because of his athletic limitations, but he's an extremely intelligent player, great passer, rebounder, and showed a nice jumpshot last season.

11. Indiana Pacers - DJ Augustin (Texas)
The Pacers are really pretty bad at PG, so Augustin is the natural pick here. He's not the most athletic PG in the draft, but he's quick enough. He is crafty enough to get his own shot, he's a very good shooter, and he can get them into their offense and get playmakers the ball (as he showed when he played Kevin Durant). This seems like a logical pick for Indiana if Augustin is still on the board.

12. Sacramento Kings - DeAndre Jordan (Texas A&M)
Jordan is extremely raw, but his athletic ability is too much to pass up. He has a long way to go, as he showed by not having a huge impact in his year at College Station (8 PPG, 6 RPG), but with his great ability, he projects to be a solid scorer, excellent rebounder and shot blocker.

13. Portland Trailblazers - Joe Alexander (West Virginia)
With the Blazers looking to make a run at the playoffs next season, Alexander is a guy that could come in and give them quality minutes right away. He's not very good defensively, but he has an advanced offensive game and can score in a variety of ways. He's sneakily athletic, has a great jump shot with lots of range, and showed he can carry a team for stretches.

14. Golden State Warriors - Donte Greene (Syracuse)
Greene looks like a great fit for Nellie ball. He's a 3/4 combo guy that can stretch the floor with his outside shot. He's great in the midrange, and shot nearly 35% from downtown in his one season for the Orange. He looks like he could develop into a very solid rebounder with his athleticism and leaping ability, as he averaged over 7 per game. He might not be ready to play a lot of minutes right away, but he should be able to contribute some with his varied skills.

What are your thoughts? What would you change around?

NBA Conference Finals Predictions

We're down to the final four teams in the NBA playoffs, and we have some relatively power matchups. Let's cut out the pretext and just get to the predictions.

EASTERN CONFERENCE

With Boston and Detroit, we have to the two teams that have been a cut above the rest of the conference all season long. Detroit, of course, are veterans at this Conference Finals thing, having been here for the last 5 seasons. Boston is coming off of a season in which they won 24 games and replaced 60% of their starters, so they're not quite so experienced with the Conference Finals. But no matter, as Boston is the favorite heading into the series.

But there has been a big development for Boston which makes them appear a lot more vulnerable than they looked in the regular season... Ray Allen got really old, really fast. He was a virtual non-factor against Cleveland, even sitting out for the majority of the 4th quarter of Game 7. He wasn't hitting shots, he wasn't getting open looks consistently, and he could not create his own shot. Without him, does Boston have the offense to get past Detroit? Especially with defensive stalwart Tayshaun Prince guarding Paul Pierce?

I do think the importance of Rajon Rondo will be magnified in this series. Against Cleveland, his defensive skills were not as important, because the Cavs obviously do not have a great offensive PG. However, Rondo will be asked to slow down Chauncey Billups, and his success or failure will be a large determinant of this series. As it stands, I'll go with the more talented Billups, and ergo, the Pistons. The Boston that I watched struggle to handle Cleveland does not have the offensive firepower to hang with Detroit.

PISTONS IN 6


WESTERN CONFERENCE

We have two legitimately great teams in this series, with the Lakers taking on the Spurs. The Lakers have been the most impressive team in the postseason so far, dispatching the Nuggets in 4 and the Jazz in 6. Meanwhile, the Spurs impressively beat Phoenix in 5 games before outlasting the Hornets in 7.

Both teams are extremely well-coached, fundamentally sound, and talented. That's usually means we should have a pretty nice series on our hands. I would guess that Bruce Bowen will start on Kobe Bryant, which will be the key matchup in the series. Though the Lakers certainly have other options on the floor, they still look to Kobe to get the offense going, both with his scoring and drawing of defenders.

When the Spurs have the ball, the key matchup will be how Derek Fisher guards Tony Parker. The Spurs obviously have Duncan and Ginobili, but the key to the offense is Tony Parker hitting his 18-footers. When Parker is hitting the jumpshot (predominately off of the pick & roll and kickouts from Duncan), the Spurs become very, very difficult to stop.

This should be a classic series between two great teams. In this case, I'll go with the proven commodity... seems like the Spurs are on a mission.

SPURS IN 7

What are your thoughts?

"With no regard for human life!"

Thank you Kevin Harlan. I love that PBP call.

Anyway, Cavs tied the series up 2-2. My first question... the Celtics won 66 games this year? Really? For the second straight game, Boston just looked absolutely abominable offensively, with no flow, and nobody stepping up and making shots. They shot just 38.6% for the game, and only 3/14 from downtown.

None of the big 3 look like they're able to take over a game offensively... KG is far too passive, Paul Pierce has struggled, and Ray Allen continues to be almost a non-factor in this series (other than 1 quarter in this game). The difference between those guys and LeBron is that even when LeBron isn't shooting well, he is still such an incredible passer that he gets tons of open looks for other guys. Boston's three stars don't do that. So while James was again awful shooting the ball, his 13 assists were enough to propel Cleveland into a series-tying victory.

This series should also have put to rest any doubt in the Kevin Garnett vs. Tim Duncan debate. Both great players, but Duncan is a different player in the playoffs and in the 4th quarter. I know the supporting casts over their careers have been vastly different, but change them up and I don't think Garnett would have 4 rings.

As we have seen in the playoffs, home court has been huge, and as Charles Barkley has been saying, things go from game to game... so it will be interesting to see if Boston can get some offensive flow again back in Boston.

The impact of Jared Allen

My life was super busy around draft time, so I never really got a chance to comment on any of the happenings (much thanks to Steve F. for his excellent post on the draft)... plus, since the Vikings didn't have a first-round choice, I didn't feel as strong of a need to comment on things.

However, I'm quite ok with the Vikings not having a first-round pick, since it allowed them to acquire the NFL's sack leader in 2007, shoring up their biggest defensive weakness, which is consistently getting to the QB with the Front 4.

For the past couple of seasons, the Vikings have had a lot of trouble stopping the pass. When people hear that, they generally assume that this is because of a porous secondary. Not that the Vikings secondary is all-world, but I never really saw that as the main reason. In my mind, there are two big reasons why they have struggled so much against the pass:

- They were so dominant against the run that people just didn't try. This is fairly obvious and has been beaten to death, but a couple of years ago, the Patriots came into the Metrodome for a Sunday night game, and they came out and literally threw the ball on about their first 20 offensive plays. This sorta provided the blueprint, and teams have simply been following it ever since.

- They could never have a consistent pass rush on the Line. Pat Williams is a man against the run, but he's not going to be putting consistent pressure on the QB. Kevin Williams is great, but facing constant double teams on the inside. Which should have, in theory, left lots of room for the DEs to operate, but it didn't always work that way. The hodgepodge of guys like Brian Robison, Ray Edwards, Kenechi Udeze, Darrion Scott, etc. are all average at best (at least, at this point in their careers) at getting to the QB. Even with 1-on-1 matchups, there was never a consistent rush of any type for the front 4. Which means 1 of 2 things happened: either the Vikings had to bring pressure from the LBs which opened things up in the passing game, or the secondary had to cover guys for a really long time. Neither is optimal.

So, of course, it's not hard to see how much of an impact Jared Allen will bring to the Vikings defense. He's one of (if not the) best pass rushers in the NFL, and he's not going to slow down the run defense either. Offensive teams will have a real tough time figuring out how to block the Vikings Line... they'll feature 3 All-Pros... 3 guys that could legitimately get double teamed if they weren't playing with the other two. On the opposite side, Ray Edwards and Brian Robison both seem to be developing into solid pass rushers, and should benefit from the increased attention that teams will have to pay Jared Allen.

So with Allen the Vikings should continue to be dominant against the run while improving them greatly against the pass. His pressure off the edge will keep QBs up at night, and it will hide any problems in the secondary because they won't have to cover as long.

For years, the Vikings have been searching for a dominant pass rushing DE, expending first round pick after first round pick on them. Now, it appears as if they finally have their man in Jared Allen. With his past, it's certainly a risk. The financial commitment is large. But when you look at his potential impact on the defense and on the franchise, giving up only a first round pick and 2 third rounders seems like a bargain.

Watching this video, I have only one thought... is it football season yet?

The 5 Best Second Day Picks. Plus, Random Draft Thoughts

With the 2008 NFL Draft in the books, I would be remiss if I didn't offer up some thoughts from one of my favorite sporting events of the year.

1. People saying that the Kansas City Chiefs are the big winners is like saying the 1927 Yankees were OK at baseball. But of course they were going to be, they had the 5th pick and they got 17 from the Vikings, plus a pair of 3rd rounders. In order for them to mess up this draft they would have had to be absolutely dumb.

2. Kudos to the Baltimore Ravens. As soon as Matt Ryan came off the board the Ravens identified that they wanted Joe Flacco, and then correctly determined they could trade down and still get their guy. Give huge credit to Ozzie Newsome for getting two extra mid rounders and still grabbing who I think will end up being the best QB out of this draft.

3. On the flip side the Carolina Panthers gave up everything but the farm in order to move up to draft Jeff Otah. Otah had better be a perennial pro bowler, because not only did Carolina give up a lot this year, they gave up next year's first rounder. The future is now in Charlotte, or it had better be.

Alright, on to the top 5 second day picks / undrafted free agents: (In no particular order)

1. Owen Schmitt, FB, 163 overall to Seattle
Maybe the fiercest competitor in all of college football this past season, Schmitt could perhaps be best known for this. But in addition to that Schmitt is a tremendous blocker who will clear the path for whomever Seattle has getting the majority of the carries this season, presumably Julius Jones. Schmitt also will be able to catch the ball out of the backfield.

2. John David Booty, QB, 137 overall to Minnesota
Vikings fans everywhere cheered when the Booty pick was announced. It's been said that Booty will be watching the 2008 season, but in my opinion if Tarvaris Jackson is struggling, Booty needs to be in there by week 5 at the latest. The Vikings have the best running back in football, the number one run defense, and a should-be improved pass defense. All they are missing is competent quarterback play. Booty is perhaps the most accurate passer of this draft class, and since the Vikings run a west coast offense, his lack of arm strength isn't a huge concern.

3. Marcus Henry, WR, 171 overall to NY Jets
Henry amassed over 1,000 receiving yards in his senior season at Kansas. Some of that is due to the pass happy offense the Jayhawks employ, but a lot of it has to do with Henry's talent. At just a shade under 6'4", Henry should be a force on jump balls, and though he is listed as a 4.5 40 yard dash, Henry repeatedly ran away from corners and safeties this year. I see Henry eventually becoming a very good third receiver, and possibly a starter in the NFL.

4. Mike Dragosavich, P, Undrafted to New England
Yes, a punter. Field position is important, and this allows the Patriots to get good punting for the league minimum. The Pats are the best team in football at saving money wherever they can, and this is no different. Had he qualified, Dragosavich would have led D-1AA the past three seasons in punting. He has a booming leg.

5. Caleb Campbell,S, 218 overall to Detroit
A great story who was profiled on Sunday, Campbell only runs a 4.57, a little slow for a safety. However, he is tough and hard nosed, and should be able to contribute on special teams right away, and in time could be an outside linebacker who is adept at stopping the run. The former Army Black Knight now can focus on playing football, rather than risking his life overseas. A huge standing ovation goes out from me both to Campbell and to the Detroit Lions.

Coming this weekend will be a post on a perhaps controversial topic (although not on the whole Bob Costas HBO thingy, you can check every other website in existence for that), but first, what are your NFL Draft thoughts?

I love Inside the NBA

From last night's postgame... Kenny Smith trying to copy Kobe and jump over a moving car. This is hilarious.

NBA Eastern Conference Playoff Predictions

With what should be a great playoff season just about upon us, it's time to prognosticate, undoubtedly ending in horrible shame at my ignorance. But that's ok.

(1) Boston Celtics vs. (8) Atlanta Hawks
It's going to be strange to see the Hawks back in the playoffs, although I don't foresee their stay being too lengthy. The Hawks have talent and athleticism, but they're no match for the Celtics. The Celtics should be able to smother the Hawks defensively, leading to a quick, decisive victory.
BOSTON IN 4

(2) Detroit Pistons vs. (7) Philadelphia 76ers
The Sixers are a great story and I'll be rooting for them, but it's difficult seeing them match up with the Pistons in a 7-game series. The Pistons are a bit too strong defensively and efficient offensively. The Sixers have played about as well as anyone over the past couple of months, but Detroit in the playoffs is a completely different animal.
DETROIT IN 5

(3) Orlando Magic vs. (6) Toronto Raptors
I like the Raptors in an upset pick. I'm not sure the Magic and their players are really familiar being in this position, as a favorite in the playoffs. It will be interesting to see how they handle it. The Raptors don't really have anyone to match up with Dwight Howard, but then the Magic don't have a good matchup for Chris Bosh. This should be a highly entertaining series.
TORONTO IN 7

(4) Cleveland Cavaliers vs. (5) Washington Wizards
These clubs will meet up for the 3rd straight season, but this year should be a lot better than last. Now that the Wizards are healthy, they're a very dangerous club capable of putting up lots of points on the board. Meanwhile, the Cavs have the best player in the world. In round 1, I think LeBron wills his team to victory... as long as the game is close at the end, LeBron will win it for the Cavs.
CLEVELAND IN 7

What are your thoughts on round 1 of the East?

Early Season MLB Surprises and Disappointments

With the MLB season being 1/16 over, of course it's time to grossly exaggerate what has happened so far.

-Surprises-

Livan Hernandez, RHP, Twins- I and humans everywhere scoffed at the Twins throwing multi million dollars at Livan Hernandez, but so far at least it has worked out. Livan is 3-0, but more importantly he has a 2.57 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP. If the Twins play Adam Everett and Matt Tolbert in the middle infield spots it should boost their defense and help out Livan and more importantly the rest of that young staff.

Brian Bannister, RHP, Royals- I suppose I shouldn't be too surprised, but I didn't totally believe Bannister's 2007. He had a good year, but only 77 strikeouts. What's surprising is that Bannister doesn't quite put up the stats that should endear him to the sabermetric community, and more so, he understands why. The fact that Bannister is familiar with things like DIPS should only make him be a better pitcher and improve even more.

San Francisco Giants- Yes I realize they're 6-10 only. Yes I realize it's April 16, but if the Giants put up this good of a record over a whole season I'll be very impressed. Honestly, they are horrible. Take a look around their roster once. Bengie Molina hits cleanup? Brian Bocock plays short? Brian Bocock put up a robust .220/.293/.328 in the California League, probably the best offensive league in minor league baseball, which equates out to a -25.9 VORP. And outside of Angel Villalona, who is only 17, there isn't any help coming from any younger kids either, unless Dan Ortmeier tickles your fancy. The only thing keeping them going is the duo of Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum. And with the way he's pitching and the way the offense is going, Matt Cain is my odds on favorite to lead the NL in ERA and losses, if you can bet on such a thing.

-Disappointments-

Russ Martin, C, Dodgers- Really I could include the entire Dodgers team here. I picked out Martin mainly because I traded for him in fantasy baseball, but to tell the truth I'm not worried. My main complaint with the Dodgers is that Joe Torre is treating managing a major league baseball team like it's building a space shuttle (or to borrow a phrase from my favorite person on earth "it's not rocket surgery") rather than what it is: put your best 8 (or 9) guys out there and let them go to it. Instead the Dodgers have used the same lineup just twice, and inexplicably have played Juan Pierre, who shouldn't ever be on the field except to pinch run, instead of Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier for some games. Really Joe Torre, put him in the 2 hole and let him go to work. The end.

New York Yankees- I said this was the year the Yankees would miss the playoffs. Hopefully I'll be right. Ian Kennedy and Phil Hughes have tons of talent, but it takes time to adjust to a major league season, but the Yankees don't have free wins against the Rays and Jays anymore to get back on track. The American League is just too good for a team to have to wait to get things going. Also, why in the world don't the Yanks have Mussina in the pen and Joba in the rotation? Truth be told, I hate the Yankees, and I'm not a huge fan of Joba doing stuff like this, but it's tough to root against a guy when this is going on. Also, the Yankees are relying probably a bit too much on older players such as Damon, Giambi, Posada and Matsui. Obviously they are good players, but how long can they play at their highest level?

On one more note, my preseason World Series pick, the Arizona Diamondbacks (yes I wish I had that on record) are playing very well. Chris Young is coming into his own (although probably should be hitting cleanup) and Justin Upton is one of the better young players in the game. It should be interesting to follow them all season.

Who are your surprises and disappointments?

NBA MVP Pick

Since this has been the best MVP race in recent memory, and we should actually get a deserving winner (no offense Steve Nash), it's time to weigh in. Basically everyone's top 4 is the same in some order: Kevin Garnett, LeBron James, Kobe Bryant and Chris Paul. I'm not going to deviate from that formula, so I will just give my top 4. In reverse order.

4. Kobe Bryant - A lot of the talk lately seems to take it for granted that either Kobe or Chris Paul will be MVP, but in my book Kobe is 4th. Yes, he's been real good on a great team. He's a great player, but that doesn't mean that others haven't been a little greater. He is still a great scorer (even with the hurt finger), scoring over 28 PPG while shooting a respectable 46%. He's a solid rebounder and passer, but LeBron (comparing him since they play similar positions) is better in both areas. He's very good defensively, but not the consistently great like Kevin Garnett, and his defensive numbers don't match Chris Paul. Add it all up, and a great season for Kobe Bryant, but still only enough to merit 4th place.

3. Kevin Garnett - He has played less minutes this year so the numbers are down a bit, but it's impossible to deny his impact on the Celtics. He's the best defensive player in the game, and he has backed it up with wild efficiency on the offensive end. His shooting is up at 54%, highest in his career. He is the ultimate team player, sacrificing his numbers and shots for the greater good of the team. He is still a great rebounder and an excellent passer for his size. How the Celtics do in the postseason will determine whether this season was a success, but there is no denying that KG has been great in his first year for Boston.

2. Chris Paul - I put him just a tiny smidgen below LeBron, but he's certainly a great MVP choice. John Hollinger actually had him as his MVP and Most Improved Player, and that's a pretty good thought. In the blink of an eye Chris Paul has surpassed Steve Nash as the best PG in the NBA, and has become one of the best players. He's become a better shooter, upping his % to above 48% on the season. He's averaging over 21 PPG, and also finding time to dole out 11.6 APG and steal 2.7 balls per game. All while leading the most surprise team in the NBA to one of the top seeds in the West. What a player.

1. LeBron James - Today I was watching Sportscenter top plays with some friends, and LeBron James was #2 with some ridiculous coast-to-coast move followed by a thunderous dunk in traffic. Someone else said something about how that wasn't even that good. But then we realized, LeBron is just so good, so talented, so athletic, that he makes it all look easy. I mean, look at his numbers... 30 PPG, 7.9 RPG, 7.2 APG, plus a more consistent defensive effort this season. No, his team's record is not as good as the other candidates, but that's so much his fault as it is that his teammates are simply not as good. But LeBron has been fantastic, and he gets my MVP vote. Once again, he's simply the best, most talented player in the NBA.

Who does your vote go too?

Snapple Antioxidant Water

Earlier this week the kind folks from Snapple were generous enough to send me a sample of some of their Antioxidant water. Here is a short description from a press release:

Antioxidant Water product line offers a smart solution that improves energy, helps restore the body and supports a healthy immune system for consumers who are actively taking steps to incorporate healthier behaviors into their everyday routine. For those looking to add a healthier boost to their traditional bottled water, the zero calorie Snapple LYTeWater line is enhanced with electrolytes and minerals.

Also, as you would expect from Snapple, it's tasty stuff.

If you get a chance to get some of the Snapple Antioxidant Water, you should! It gets my official recommendation (which is not an easy thing to get).

Anyway, here is a commerical for the product.